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JWalterK
PostPosted: Thu Feb 18, 2010 17:12    Post subject: Ur Game 391811 Reply with quote

Has anyone been more unlucky than not being able to move 13 consecutive times & simply lost the game? Ur game 391811 has the most unbelievable luck I have ever known so far. First is the unbelievable bad luck for the white pieces & second is the unbelievable good luck for black (both happened in this game).
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bramOffline
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 9:08    Post subject: Reply with quote

The answer I also gave to you in the mail:

The dice are rolled randomly, so this can happen. The dice roll algorithm has no knowledge of the player nor the game nor the color.

In your case you need a one, the change for a 1 is in 1 turn 25%. So it is really quite possible
to have 13 consecutive rolls without a 1. I calculated it as .7513 = 2.38%
So it is rather probable!

2,38% is rather a huge chance. We have currently around 1000 games running, so around 24 games where this can happen! and since the average number of turns per game is higher I suspect it happens every 75 of 1000 games that there will be a run of 13 turns without a 1.
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JWalterK
PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 11:05    Post subject: Reply with quote

thanks for your reply, bram. but my real question was the luck on both sides. your reply is just limited to the bad luck of 1 side. what about the good luck of the other side? & combining these 2 luck in a game? i definitely doubt that this probability can even exceed 1%.
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bramOffline
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 21, 2010 17:22    Post subject: Reply with quote

JWalterK wrote:
thanks for your reply, bram. but my real question was the luck on both sides. your reply is just limited to the bad luck of 1 side. what about the good luck of the other side? & combining these 2 luck in a game? i definitely doubt that this probability can even exceed 1%.


Those chances are not related. the other side did fairly normal moves. Your bad luck = that sides good luck so the chance is about the same!
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Dmitry123456
PostPosted: Wed Jun 16, 2010 18:01    Post subject: Reply with quote

bram wrote:
The answer I also gave to you in the mail:

The dice are rolled randomly, so this can happen. The dice roll algorithm has no knowledge of the player nor the game nor the color.

In your case you need a one, the change for a 1 is in 1 turn 25%. So it is really quite possible
to have 13 consecutive rolls without a 1. I calculated it as .7513 = 2.38%
So it is rather probable!

2,38% is rather a huge chance. We have currently around 1000 games running, so around 24 games where this can happen! and since the average number of turns per game is higher I suspect it happens every 75 of 1000 games that there will be a run of 13 turns without a 1.

It equals 0.02375726401805877685546875 which is roughly 2.38%.
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