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stefanoOffline
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 23:26    Post subject: What are the chances of that?! Reply with quote

I have played 1,731 games of Safari and my Safari rating is 1,731. What are the chances of that?!!
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chesslover
PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:27    Post subject: Re: What are the chances of that?! Reply with quote

stefano wrote:
I have played 1,731 games of Safari and my Safari rating is 1,731. What are the chances of that?!!


1/(infinity x infinity)

Cool
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RiskyOffline
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 17:13    Post subject: Reply with quote

Odds must be 1 in 1731.
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The_BurglarOffline
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:02    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy maybe once for every game, in time
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kapeboOffline
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 14:12    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.

The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.

So the chance is 100%.
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FredactOffline
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 01, 2019 18:33    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.

The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.

So the chance is 100%.


Not really. Since your rating changes every time you play a game, you could match several times or not at all. e.g. your rating is 1527, and you've played 1526 games. If you lose, your rating will go down, but your games played will go up, and the two won't meet.
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chardirOffline
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 17:06    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fredact wrote:
Quote:
Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.

The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.

So the chance is 100%.


Not really. Since your rating changes every time you play a game, you could match several times or not at all. e.g. your rating is 1527, and you've played 1526 games. If you lose, your rating will go down, but your games played will go up, and the two won't meet.


Ah, but the trick is you are only thinking about 1 iteration.

Imagine, I have played 1700 games. Now also imagine my rating is fairly consistent, varying only between 1700 and 1750.

Now, you can see there are 50 games coming up after each of which there is roughly a 1 in 50 chance of my number of games matching my rating.

You can see there is a reasonable chance that it will happen.

Now also imagine I'm a frequent player and there are 10 other games where my number of games is approaching my average rating.

Now also imagine there are many other frequent users of this site.

You can see the chances of it happening to someone at some time rapidly approaches 100%.
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FredactOffline
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 18:09    Post subject: Reply with quote

chardir wrote:
Fredact wrote:
Quote:
Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.

The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.

So the chance is 100%.


Not really. Since your rating changes every time you play a game, you could match several times or not at all. e.g. your rating is 1527, and you've played 1526 games. If you lose, your rating will go down, but your games played will go up, and the two won't meet.


Ah, but the trick is you are only thinking about 1 iteration.

Imagine, I have played 1700 games. Now also imagine my rating is fairly consistent, varying only between 1700 and 1750.

Now, you can see there are 50 games coming up after each of which there is roughly a 1 in 50 chance of my number of games matching my rating.

You can see there is a reasonable chance that it will happen.

Now also imagine I'm a frequent player and there are 10 other games where my number of games is approaching my average rating.

Now also imagine there are many other frequent users of this site.

You can see the chances of it happening to someone at some time rapidly approaches 100%.


You are correct (the math is similar to the birthday problem--calculate the chances of it not happening).

But that's very different than what I was replying too, which was the stated certainty that it would happen which was the result of an incorrect assumption.
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krell42Offline
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 18:11    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love this thread. Very Happy
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The_BurglarOffline
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 20:09    Post subject: Reply with quote

Your real rating is most likely an irrational number so would rarely ever match
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krell42Offline
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 16:59    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think you mean irrational in this context...I believe you meant that your rating wouldn't be a whole number...which is a good point given the absurdity of the conversation...(which i still love)
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