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stefanoVip Joined: 15 Aug 2011 Total posts: 9 Gender: Unknown 
Posted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 23:26 Post subject: What are the chances of that?! 


I have played 1,731 games of Safari and my Safari rating is 1,731. What are the chances of that?!! 

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chesslover 
Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:27 Post subject: Re: What are the chances of that?! 


stefano wrote:  I have played 1,731 games of Safari and my Safari rating is 1,731. What are the chances of that?!! 
1/(infinity x infinity)


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Risky Joined: 30 Aug 2005 Total posts: 19 Age: 33 Gender: Male 
Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 17:13 Post subject: 


Odds must be 1 in 1731. 

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The_Burglar
Joined: 17 Mar 2009 Total posts: 112 Location: Sutton Coldfield Gender: Male 
Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:02 Post subject: 


maybe once for every game, in time 

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kapebo Joined: 23 Aug 2016 Total posts: 2 Gender: Unknown 
Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2019 14:12 Post subject: 


Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.
The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.
So the chance is 100%. 

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Fredact
Joined: 20 Feb 2014 Total posts: 18 Gender: Unknown 
Posted: Fri Feb 01, 2019 18:33 Post subject: 


Quote:  Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.
The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.
So the chance is 100%. 
Not really. Since your rating changes every time you play a game, you could match several times or not at all. e.g. your rating is 1527, and you've played 1526 games. If you lose, your rating will go down, but your games played will go up, and the two won't meet. 

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chardir 
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 17:06 Post subject: 


Fredact wrote:  Quote:  Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.
The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.
So the chance is 100%. 
Not really. Since your rating changes every time you play a game, you could match several times or not at all. e.g. your rating is 1527, and you've played 1526 games. If you lose, your rating will go down, but your games played will go up, and the two won't meet. 
Ah, but the trick is you are only thinking about 1 iteration.
Imagine, I have played 1700 games. Now also imagine my rating is fairly consistent, varying only between 1700 and 1750.
Now, you can see there are 50 games coming up after each of which there is roughly a 1 in 50 chance of my number of games matching my rating.
You can see there is a reasonable chance that it will happen.
Now also imagine I'm a frequent player and there are 10 other games where my number of games is approaching my average rating.
Now also imagine there are many other frequent users of this site.
You can see the chances of it happening to someone at some time rapidly approaches 100%. 

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Fredact
Joined: 20 Feb 2014 Total posts: 18 Gender: Unknown 
Posted: Fri Feb 08, 2019 18:09 Post subject: 


chardir wrote:  Fredact wrote:  Quote:  Since your rating starts at 1500 and you start with 0 matches, there will be a moment when the rating is the same.
The same principable can be used to reason that there must be two trees with the same number leaves.
So the chance is 100%. 
Not really. Since your rating changes every time you play a game, you could match several times or not at all. e.g. your rating is 1527, and you've played 1526 games. If you lose, your rating will go down, but your games played will go up, and the two won't meet. 
Ah, but the trick is you are only thinking about 1 iteration.
Imagine, I have played 1700 games. Now also imagine my rating is fairly consistent, varying only between 1700 and 1750.
Now, you can see there are 50 games coming up after each of which there is roughly a 1 in 50 chance of my number of games matching my rating.
You can see there is a reasonable chance that it will happen.
Now also imagine I'm a frequent player and there are 10 other games where my number of games is approaching my average rating.
Now also imagine there are many other frequent users of this site.
You can see the chances of it happening to someone at some time rapidly approaches 100%. 
You are correct (the math is similar to the birthday problemcalculate the chances of it not happening).
But that's very different than what I was replying too, which was the stated certainty that it would happen which was the result of an incorrect assumption. 

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krell42Vip
Joined: 03 Jul 2012 Total posts: 16 Location: Behind the stormcloud! Age: 44 Gender: Male 
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 18:11 Post subject: 


I love this thread. 

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The_Burglar
Joined: 17 Mar 2009 Total posts: 112 Location: Sutton Coldfield Gender: Male 
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 2019 20:09 Post subject: 


Your real rating is most likely an irrational number so would rarely ever match 

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krell42Vip
Joined: 03 Jul 2012 Total posts: 16 Location: Behind the stormcloud! Age: 44 Gender: Male 
Posted: Sun Oct 27, 2019 16:59 Post subject: 


I don't think you mean irrational in this context...I believe you meant that your rating wouldn't be a whole number...which is a good point given the absurdity of the conversation...(which i still love) 

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The_Burglar
Joined: 17 Mar 2009 Total posts: 112 Location: Sutton Coldfield Gender: Male 
Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2020 14:12 Post subject: 4th in ratings in 4 games 


The chances must be low to be 4th rated in 4 games 

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